“Though the market has been experiencing a slower return to growth, there was some room for optimism in Q4 as government subsidies in China led to better than expected performance within the consumer segment,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “Beyond that, the US and some European countries also showed strong performance due to end-of-year sale promotions, as well as enterprises continuing on the path of upgrading hardware before the end of support for Windows 10 which is scheduled for October 2025.”
The approaching administration change in the US along with the threat of new and increased tariffs have elevated the level of concern across the industry, with some brands looking to get ahead of what is essentially uncertainty. Supply side research showed some pull-in during December, largely from those brands that have limited manufacturing capacity outside of China. Presumably as a preventative measure around US tariffs on goods made in China.
“The overall macroeconomic concerns seem to be overshadowing some of the progress and excitement around AI PCs. However, we maintain the view that the impact that on-device AI will have on the industry will be positive, even if the inflection point is delayed,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Device Trackers. “When the industry is trying to push new AI PCs that come with higher cost at a time when use cases are still being vetted and budgets are tight, that is clearly going to be a challenge. But on-device AI for PCs is inevitable, therefore, right now it is about suppliers trying to be patient as their customers are dealing with headwinds unrelated to these technology advancements.”
Looking ahead to 2025, weakening market sentiment and U.S. tariffs on China drive reduction in PC and tablet demand. In the wake of the USA’s tariffs on China as well as a weakening market sentiment, mostly in the consumer space, IDC has reduced its traditional PC forecast in 2025 and beyond. Global PC volume is now expected to reach 273 million in 2025, still growing +3.7% over the prior year though this is a slight reduction from the prior forecast. Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts sub 1% growth each year through 2029 for the traditional PC market, due in part from volume stabilization following Windows 11 migration. Meanwhile, tablets are not expected to fare much better as shipments are anticipated to shrink 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million and the market faces a slight gradual decline, reaching 141.6 million units by the end of 2029 due mostly to consumer saturation.
In addition to form factor-specific trends, the commercial space will be the main driver for the gains in 2025. Commercial PC volume (including Education PCs) grew 2% in 2024, driven by some large deals and modest Windows 11 migration volume. As shown in the table below, IDC expects commercial and school renewal projects to be the biggest driver for 2025. In keeping with past Windows PC refresh cycles, IDC expects firms to largely continue Windows 11 PC purchases through 2025, although budgets and other constraints will leave some to choose in-place upgrades or pay for extended Windows 10 support. AI PC purchases have faced hurdles since their launch, but IDC expects a more robust ecosystem to emerge by latter 2025, leading most new PCs to be GenAI-capable by 2026.
